One paper
Every thin arc is one citation, leaving the paper the day it was
published and landing in the year it was made. The stamp falls on
the year the journal declared the result invalid — pale before,
red after.
What it shows — this paper was cited
950 times after it was retracted, against 936 before. Half
its citation life happened after it was withdrawn.
Where in science this happens
3.4 million biomedical papers, placed by what they are about.
Neighbours share a subject; the red ones were retracted.
What it shows — the red is not spread evenly.
Against a baseline rate of 0.057%, the worst neighbourhood runs at
10.7%, or 188× the average, and half of all retractions
sit in 4.3% of the map. Two thirds of neighbourhoods have none
at all.
The ring nobody counts
Everything so far counted papers citing the retracted paper
directly — authors who at least had it in their hands.
The tall columns are the ring beyond: papers citing one of
those, whose authors have no reason to know. Same scale;
direct citation is the slivers along the bottom.
What it shows — direct citation
falls after retraction, from 307 a year to 12. Second-hand
citation keeps climbing, from 2,926 in 2018 to 9,318 by 2024.
The year
before retraction there were 10 second-hand citations for every
direct one. By 2026 there are 396.
The correction reaches the first ring. It never
reaches the second.
The number we defend
63% is partly an artefact: the median paper spent two years valid
and five retracted, so it simply had longer. Divide by the time
available instead. One dot per paper — rate before across, rate
after up — and the diagonal is where nothing changed.
What it shows — most papers fall
below the line, so retraction does slow them. The median
lands at 0.62×: about a third off the rate. But
63 of 205 sit above it, cited faster dead than
alive.
Retraction slows the spread by about a third. It
does not stop it.